Weather or Not: Listen to National Forecasts with Caution


WXRISK meteorologist David Tolleris predicts a cold winter ahead.

WXRISK meteorologist David Tolleris understands the importance the weather can have on AGRR companies and cautioned that many of the national weather providers are looking more for ratings rather than getting the weather forecast correct. And the weather can have a big impact on business.

“Something like the polar vortex can swing the market 15-20 percent easily,” pointed out Bill George of NSG Pilkington during another presentation at Auto Glass Week™ this week.

“GFS is the worst weather model in the world and it’s what the U.S. is based off of,” said Tolleris. Just about every other country has better weather prediction models, he noted.

“The purpose of weather forecast is not to make me feel good … the purpose is to inform people,” he added.

He pointed to the ice storm that hit and shut down Atlanta as an example. Initially forecasters has called a winter weather advisory but they downgraded it to a winter weather advisory. People did not realize how much bad weather was coming, Tolleris noted.

On the Tuesday morning the storm hit, forecasters scrambled to upgrade the storm prediction back to a winter weather warning by 5 a.m. But it was too late. By that time people were already getting ready for work and did not see the update. Technically, they got it right because they updated it before the storm hit, but looking at any of the news reports and photos coming out of the area, it was obvious people did not know the severity of the storm that was about to hit them. The city came to a standstill.

Tolleris said this winter is likely to be another cold one. He will release his preliminary 2014-2015 winter forecast on October 18. Visit and stay tuned to™ for more coverage this evening from the Awards Gala.

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