AAIA Forecasts 3.8 Percent Increase in Aftermarket Sales for 2010
April 14, 2010

U.S. motor vehicle aftermarket sales are expected to increase 3.8 percent in 2010, according to preliminary analysis being compiled for the Aftermarket Factbook to be released in May by the Automotive Aftermarket Industry Association (AAIA).

The Channel Forecast Model featured in the Factbook attributes the increase partly to anticipated pent-up demand for vehicle maintenance and repair by consumers during 2009, when the aftermarket industry sales dropped for the first time in more than a decade to negative 2.4 percent.

"According to the Channel Forecast Model, the rebound in macroeconomic conditions in the U.S. that began in 2009 is expected to continue and accelerate in 2010 and 2011," says Kathleen Schmatz, AAIA president and chief executive officer. "Most major economic indicators have already begun to move in a positive direction or will begin to trend that way during the year."

Among the positive impacts in the model are the following:

• Nominal GDP growth should average over 4.5 percent annually from 2010 through 2012;
• Unemployment will peak in Q3 2010 at 10.0 percent, but decline steadily to 7.9 percent by Q4 2012;
• Dramatic increases in savings rate seen in 2009 and 2010 will ease as consumers show growth in consumer spending after a decline in 2009;
• A rebound in the housing market and consumer wealth will further encourage consumer spending; and
• Miles driven are expected to increase as the unemployment rate declines.

Among the negative impacts forecasted are these:

• Increasing energy costs are helping to constrain disposable income growth;
• Light vehicle sales should approach pre-recession levels of near 16 million units by 2012; and
• 2008 through 2010 total vehicle sales of 35 million is 30 percent less than recent pre-recession historical three-year averages, reducing the number of vehicles entering traditional prime repair ages.
  

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